| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 50.5% | 58% | -7.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 75.0% | 84% | -8.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 66.4% | 76% | -9.7% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.1% | 61% | -6.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.5% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 25.2% | 24.0% | 50.8% |
| xgboost | 28.3% | 25.2% | 46.5% |
| logistic | 20.3% | 25.7% | 54.0% |
| Eastleigh | Southend | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1405 | 1558 |
| Surface Elo | 1405 | 1558 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.20 | 2.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 6 W · 1 D |
| 26 Sep | A | Harrogate | 1 - 4 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Harrogate | 1 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Carlisle | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Carlisle | 1 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | A | Sutton | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Barrow | 2 - 4 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Barrow | 2 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Gateshead | 6 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Gateshead | 6 - 1 | W |
| 15 Sep | H | Tamworth | 3 - 1 | W |
| 20 Jan 2026 | Southend | 4 - 1 | Eastleigh |
| 24 Sep 2025 | Eastleigh | 2 - 1 | Southend |
| 22 Mar 2025 | Eastleigh | 1 - 2 | Southend |
| 10 Sep 2024 | Southend | 2 - 0 | Eastleigh |
| 13 Jan 2024 | Eastleigh | 0 - 1 | Southend |
| 25 Aug 2023 | Southend | 2 - 0 | Eastleigh |
| 28 Jan 2023 | Southend | 1 - 3 | Eastleigh |
| 27 Aug 2022 | Eastleigh | 2 - 1 | Southend |
| 22 Feb 2022 | Eastleigh | 1 - 1 | Southend |
| 05 Oct 2021 | Southend | 1 - 0 | Eastleigh |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 1.73 | 57.8% | 30 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 30 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.90 | 25.6% | 30 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.48 | 67.6% | 30 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.60 | 38.5% | 30 Sep 19:45 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.76 | 56.8% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.10 | 24.4% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.61 | 62.1% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 30 Sep 06:15 |