| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 51.4% | 62% | -10.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 37.1% | 62.9% |
| logistic | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | Elmer Moller | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1750 | 1729 |
| Surface Elo | 1750 | 1729 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.45 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.64 | 1.58 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.45 | 1.08 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 03 Nov | H | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Nov | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Nov | A | Elmer Moller | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Nov | H | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 0 - 1 | L |
| 02 Nov | A | Zdenek Kolar | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Nov | H | Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Nov | H | Zdenek Kolar | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Svyatoslav Gulin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | Henrique Rocha | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Elmer Moller | 0 - 2 | Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva |
| 11 May 2026 | Elmer Moller | 2 - 0 | Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.65 | 60.6% | 05 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 05 Nov 06:15 |