| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.5% | 41% | +7.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.2% | 80% | -3.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 60.2% | 55% | +5.2% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.9% | 65% | -17.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 44.8% | 23.0% | 32.2% |
| xgboost | 37.3% | 26.5% | 36.2% |
| logistic | 35.5% | 27.5% | 37.0% |
| Aldershot | Tamworth | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1390 | 1422 |
| Surface Elo | 1390 | 1422 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | -0.50 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 2 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Barrow | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Barrow | 0 - 1 | L |
| 15 Sep | H | Yeovil | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Solihull | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Halifax | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Wealdstone | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Wealdstone | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Sep | A | Southend | 1 - 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Harrogate | 1 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Boston Utd | 2 - 2 | D |
| 14 Feb 2026 | Tamworth | 1 - 1 | Aldershot |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Aldershot | 1 - 2 | Tamworth |
| 25 Jan 2025 | Aldershot | 2 - 2 | Tamworth |
| 26 Aug 2024 | Tamworth | 3 - 2 | Aldershot |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.55 | 39.2% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.45 | 40.8% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.54 | 64.9% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.40 | 41.7% | 25 Sep 06:15 |