| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.4% | 68% | -10.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 63.1% | 36.8% |
| logistic | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1635 | 1624 |
| Surface Elo | 1635 | 1624 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 07 Oct | H | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Alex Barrena | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Alex Barrena | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Guido Ivan Justo | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Munk Mesa, Bernardo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | 2 - 0 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | 1 - 2 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | 1 - 2 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida |
| 22 Sep 2025 | Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | 1 - 2 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida |
| 01 May 2023 | Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | 1 - 2 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.49 | 67.1% | 09 Oct 06:15 |