| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 68.3% | 88% | -19.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 36.3% | 63.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 20.7% | 79.2% |
| logistic | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| Samuele Pieri | Daniel Rincon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1575 | 1624 |
| Surface Elo | 1575 | 1624 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.88 | 1.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.13 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.11 |
| Rest days | 7 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Daniel Rincon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Martin Krumich | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Martin Krumich | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Vitaliy Sachko | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Michael Mmoh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Samuele Pieri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Pedro Martinez | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Pedro Martinez | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Daniel Rincon | 2 - 0 | Samuele Pieri |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.17 | 85.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.65 | 21.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |