OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-23

🎾 ATP Challenger Cali, Colombia Men Singles · Friday 23 October 2026, 15:00 UTC · finished

Felipe Meligeni Alves 2.40 2 - 1 1.80 Carlos Maria Zarate

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	70.4%	81%	-10.9%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
markov	71.2%	28.8%
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	81.0%	19.0%
logistic	69.2%	30.8%

Inputs the models saw

	Felipe Meligeni Alves	Carlos Maria Zarate
Elo (pre-match)	1651	1471
Surface Elo	1651	1471
Form, last 5 (PPG)	2.40	1.80
Form trend	-0.60	-0.60
Season points per game	2.18	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.27	1.00
Season goals against / game	0.45	1.33
Rest days	1	1
Head-to-head (last 10)	2 W	0 W · 0 D

Felipe Meligeni Alves: last 5

22 Oct	A	Diego Dedura	2 - 0	W
20 Oct	A	Juan Pablo Ficovich	2 - 0	W
19 Oct	H	Juan Sebastian Gomez	2 - 0	W
19 Oct	H	Valerio Aboian	1 - 2	L
19 Oct	A	Carlos Maria Zarate	2 - 1	W

Carlos Maria Zarate: last 5

22 Oct	H	Francisco Comesana	2 - 1	W
20 Oct	H	Franco Ribero	2 - 0	W
19 Oct	H	Felipe Meligeni Alves	1 - 2	L
19 Oct	H	Francisco Comesana	2 - 1	W
19 Oct	H	Franco Ribero	2 - 0	W

Head to head

19 Oct 2026	Carlos Maria Zarate	1 - 2	Felipe Meligeni Alves
29 Sep 2026	Felipe Meligeni Alves	2 - 0	Carlos Maria Zarate
28 Sep 2026	Carlos Maria Zarate	0 - 2	Felipe Meligeni Alves

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
SportyBet	1X2	away	3.90	25.6%	23 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.23	81.3%	23 Oct 06:15

Generated 2026-10-30 15:01 UTC