| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.3% | 51% | +0.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.0% | 81% | -1.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 69.8% | 71% | -0.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.9% | 47% | +7.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 51.7% | 29.1% | 19.3% |
| xgboost | 55.1% | 29.7% | 15.2% |
| logistic | 49.8% | 28.1% | 22.1% |
| Burgos | Eldense | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1581 | 1397 |
| Surface Elo | 1581 | 1397 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | -0.80 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 1 D |
| 27 Sep | A | Cultural Leonesa | 0 - 0 | D |
| 20 Sep | A | Las Palmas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Las Palmas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Sep | H | Ceuta | 3 - 1 | W |
| 06 Sep | A | Oviedo | 0 - 0 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Torrent CF | 3 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Eibar | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Eibar | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Sep | A | Sp Gijon | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Mallorca | 0 - 0 | D |
| 29 Mar 2025 | Eldense | 0 - 0 | Burgos |
| 08 Dec 2024 | Burgos | 1 - 0 | Eldense |
| 10 May 2024 | Burgos | 1 - 2 | Eldense |
| 05 Nov 2023 | Eldense | 2 - 0 | Burgos |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.90 | 25.6% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.33 | 30.0% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.97 | 50.8% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.15 | 46.5% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.67 | 59.9% | 25 Sep 06:15 |