| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 43.2% | 59% | -16.2% | abandoned |
| DC | Home or away | 72.3% | 82% | -9.9% | abandoned |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 56.1% | 76% | -19.7% | abandoned |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% | 60% | -5.5% | abandoned |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.2% | no line | abandoned |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 31.8% | 27.1% | 41.1% |
| xgboost | 46.2% | 24.0% | 29.8% |
| logistic | 35.2% | 41.7% | 23.0% |
| Harrogate | Bury | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1452 | 1540 |
| Surface Elo | 1452 | 1540 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 10 | 2726 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Bury | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Woking | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Woking | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Hornchurch | 3 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Hornchurch | 3 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Harrogate | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Bromsgrove Sporting | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Gainsborough Trinity | 3 - 3 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Workington AFC | 5 - 1 | W |
| 04 May | H | Port Vale | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Bury | 1 - 1 | Harrogate |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.80 | 26.3% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.20 | 23.8% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.83 | 54.6% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.70 | 58.8% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 20 Oct 06:15 |