| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 46.2% | 55% | -9.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.9% | 85% | -9.7% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 58.9% | 71% | -11.8% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% | 71% | -12.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.4% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 42.7% | 27.4% | 29.9% |
| xgboost | 39.9% | 26.6% | 33.5% |
| logistic | 36.9% | 28.6% | 34.5% |
| Blackburn | Bolton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1519 | 1533 |
| Surface Elo | 1519 | 1533 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.70 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Cardiff | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Cardiff | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Portsmouth | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Portsmouth | 2 - 2 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Millwall | 3 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Stoke | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Stoke | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Norwich | 4 - 3 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Norwich | 4 - 3 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Cardiff | 1 - 0 | W |
| 22 Apr 2019 | Blackburn | 2 - 0 | Bolton |
| 06 Oct 2018 | Bolton | 0 - 1 | Blackburn |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.40 | 29.4% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.25 | 23.5% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.81 | 55.2% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.41 | 70.9% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.75 | 36.4% | 12 Oct 06:15 |