| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.4% | 45% | +8.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 51.3% | 48.6% |
| logistic | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| Jose Pereira | Tristan McCormick | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1437 | 1449 |
| Surface Elo | 1437 | 1449 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.80 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.40 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 11 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | H | Lautaro Midon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Mateus Alves | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Lautaro Midon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Mateus Alves | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Ryan Dickerson | 2 - 1 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Juan Sebastian Osorio | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | Alberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | A | Dakotah Bobo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Lucas Andrade Da Silva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Bini, Victor | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.62 | 61.7% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 18 Oct 06:15 |