| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 70.6% | 69% | +1.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 24.3% | 75.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 24.6% | 75.4% |
| logistic | 31.5% | 68.5% |
| Dominic Stricker | Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1686 | 1963 |
| Surface Elo | 1686 | 1963 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| Rest days | 11 | 10 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 15 Oct | H | Otto Virtanen | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Oct | H | Philip Henning | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Otto Virtanen | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Philip Henning | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Laslo Djere | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | A | Rafael Jodar | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | Rafael Jodar | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Oct | H | Felix Auger Aliassime | 1 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | H | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Learner Tien | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Jul 2025 | Casper Ruud | 2 - 0 | Dominic Stricker |
| 23 Oct 2023 | Casper Ruud | 1 - 2 | Dominic Stricker |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.44 | 69.4% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.90 | 34.5% | 25 Oct 06:15 |