| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 49.5% | 40% | +9.1% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.6% | 77% | -1.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 62.7% | 56% | +6.6% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.8% | 52% | +0.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 30.6% | 26.2% | 43.1% |
| xgboost | 48.1% | 25.7% | 26.2% |
| logistic | 46.7% | 28.2% | 25.1% |
| Notts County | Oxford | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1493 | 1515 |
| Surface Elo | 1493 | 1515 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.70 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.17 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.29 | 1.17 |
| Rest days | 20 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Sep | H | Grimsby | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Reading | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Reading | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Bradford | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Huddersfield | 1 - 1 | D |
| 06 Oct | A | Exeter | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Cambridge | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Cambridge | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Burton | 3 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Leicester | 4 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.10 | 32.3% | 10 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 10 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 10 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.00 | 50.0% | 10 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.85 | 54.0% | 10 Oct 12:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.90 | 34.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.45 | 40.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.93 | 51.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.84 | 54.4% | 10 Oct 06:15 |