| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.4% | 69% | -9.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 29.7% | 70.2% |
| logistic | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| Matteo Martineau | Otto Virtanen | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1628 | 1650 |
| Surface Elo | 1628 | 1650 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 5 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 21 Oct | A | Thijs Boogaard | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | H | Mika Brunold | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | H | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | 1 - 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | A | Etienne Donnet | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Vitaliy Sachko | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | Dominic Stricker | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Oct | A | Remy Bertola | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Dominic Stricker | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Remy Bertola | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct 2025 | Matteo Martineau | 0 - 2 | Otto Virtanen |
| 21 Oct 2024 | Matteo Martineau | 0 - 2 | Otto Virtanen |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.42 | 70.4% | 26 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.75 | 36.4% | 26 Oct 06:15 |