| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.1% | 63% | -6.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 82.1% | 86% | -4.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 75.0% | 81% | -5.6% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.5% | 44% | +8.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 48.8% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 49.5% | 26.3% | 24.1% |
| xgboost | 61.3% | 20.7% | 18.1% |
| logistic | 63.2% | 23.2% | 13.6% |
| Chesterfield | Colchester | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1511 | 1424 |
| Surface Elo | 1511 | 1424 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.40 | 0.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.80 | 0.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 3 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Port Vale | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Port Vale | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Crawley Town | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Crawley Town | 2 - 2 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Tranmere | 4 - 2 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Exeter City | 0 - 0 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Exeter | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Newport County | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Newport County | 0 - 1 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Luton | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Mar 2026 | Chesterfield | 3 - 0 | Colchester |
| 04 Oct 2025 | Colchester | 6 - 2 | Chesterfield |
| 04 Mar 2025 | Colchester | 1 - 0 | Chesterfield |
| 22 Oct 2024 | Chesterfield | 1 - 1 | Colchester |
| 30 Dec 2017 | Chesterfield | 0 - 0 | Colchester |
| 12 Sep 2017 | Colchester | 1 - 1 | Chesterfield |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.00 | 20.0% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.20 | 23.8% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.61 | 62.1% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.63 | 61.4% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 20 Oct 06:15 |