| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 66.0% | 79% | -13.4% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 83.4% | 16.5% |
| logistic | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| Gustavo Heide | Guido Ivan Justo | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1790 | 1646 |
| Surface Elo | 1790 | 1646 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | H | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 1 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Lautaro Midon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 1 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Hernan Casanova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Guido Ivan Justo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Barrios Vera, Marcelo Tomas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Pedro Sakamoto | 1 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Franco Roncadelli | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Gustavo Heide | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Guido Ivan Justo | 2 - 0 | Gustavo Heide |
| 06 Apr 2026 | Guido Ivan Justo | 0 - 2 | Gustavo Heide |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.65 | 27.4% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.26 | 79.4% | 04 Oct 06:15 |