| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 54.8% | 69% | -14.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| logistic | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| Mitchell Krueger | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1582 | 1576 |
| Surface Elo | 1582 | 1576 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 4 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | H | Sebastian Gorzny | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Sep | A | Michael Zheng | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Sep | A | Ryan Seggerman | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Sep | H | Keegan Smith | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Michael Zheng | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Aidan Mayo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Tristan Boyer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Mitchell Krueger | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Sep | A | Wolf, Jeffrey John | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 Sep | H | Nishesh Basavareddy | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Mitchell Krueger | 1 - 2 | Sebastian Gorzny |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.45 | 69.0% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.65 | 37.7% | 22 Sep 06:15 |