| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 61.8% | 72% | -10.7% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 30.9% | 69.1% |
| logistic | 39.0% | 61.0% |
| Miguel Tobon | Nicolas Mejia | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1487 | 1604 |
| Surface Elo | 1487 | 1604 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.80 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | A | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Valerio Aboian | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Nicolas Mejia | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Federico Coria | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Miguel Tobon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Federico Coria | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Miguel Tobon | 2 - 1 | Nicolas Mejia |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.38 | 72.5% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.90 | 34.5% | 22 Oct 06:15 |