| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.1% | 79% | -22.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 80.4% | 95% | -14.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 74.1% | 93% | -18.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.5% | 72% | -16.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 58.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 61.1% | 20.1% | 18.8% |
| xgboost | 54.9% | 23.5% | 21.6% |
| logistic | 56.0% | 25.2% | 18.8% |
| Barnsley | Aldershot | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1416 | 1352 |
| Surface Elo | 1416 | 1352 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 31 Oct | H | Oxford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Oct | H | Oxford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | A | Reading | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Reading | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Luton | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Nov | H | Ipswich Town U21 | 0 - 5 | L |
| 31 Oct | H | Gateshead | 1 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Gateshead | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Oct | A | Sutton | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Oct | A | Sutton | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 9.50 | 10.5% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 6.60 | 15.2% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.26 | 79.4% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.38 | 72.5% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.95 | 33.9% | 07 Nov 06:15 |