| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 52.0% | 59% | -7.1% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 78.0% | 82% | -3.9% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 68.5% | 76% | -7.6% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.8% | 65% | -8.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 23.6% | 23.8% | 52.6% |
| xgboost | 24.4% | 24.2% | 51.4% |
| logistic | 23.2% | 26.0% | 50.8% |
| Aston Villa | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1756 | 1946 |
| Surface Elo | 1756 | 1946 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.50 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 5 W · 1 D |
| 21 Oct | H | Viking FK | 3 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Newcastle | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Newcastle | 1 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | H | Fenerbahce | 6 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Brentford | 2 - 2 | D |
| 20 Oct | H | AEK | 5 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Ipswich Town U21 | 3 - 2 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Ipswich | 3 - 2 | W |
| 14 Oct | H | Paris Saint Germain | 2 - 4 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Liverpool | 3 - 0 | W |
| 24 May 2026 | Manchester City | 1 - 2 | Aston Villa |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Aston Villa | 1 - 0 | Manchester City |
| 22 Apr 2025 | Manchester City | 2 - 1 | Aston Villa |
| 21 Dec 2024 | Aston Villa | 2 - 1 | Manchester City |
| 03 Apr 2024 | Manchester City | 4 - 1 | Aston Villa |
| 06 Dec 2023 | Aston Villa | 1 - 0 | Manchester City |
| 12 Feb 2023 | Manchester City | 3 - 1 | Aston Villa |
| 03 Sep 2022 | Aston Villa | 1 - 1 | Manchester City |
| 22 May 2022 | Manchester City | 3 - 2 | Aston Villa |
| 01 Dec 2021 | Aston Villa | 1 - 2 | Manchester City |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.69 | 59.2% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.47 | 22.4% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.93 | 20.3% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.53 | 65.4% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.60 | 38.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |