| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.0% | 25% | +34.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 82.5% | 54% | +28.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 76.7% | 34% | +42.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 57% | -3.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 20.7% | 25.1% | 54.1% |
| xgboost | 24.3% | 21.2% | 54.4% |
| logistic | 9.2% | 11.7% | 79.1% |
| Chievo | Ac Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1485 | 1765 |
| Surface Elo | 1485 | 1765 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.70 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1987 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 4 W · 0 D |
| 07 Oct | A | Asd Calcio Brusaporto | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Nibbiano And Valtidone | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | S.S.D. Virtus Ciseranobergamo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 May | H | Ascoli | 3 - 0 | W |
| 07 May | A | Virtus Entella | 3 - 1 | W |
| 15 Oct | A | Salzburg | 4 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Sassuolo | 1 - 1 | D |
| 11 Oct | A | Sassuolo | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | Lecce | 3 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Villa Dalme Valle Brembana | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Mar 2019 | Chievo | 1 - 2 | Ac Milan |
| 07 Oct 2018 | Ac Milan | 3 - 1 | Chievo |
| 18 Mar 2018 | Ac Milan | 3 - 2 | Chievo |
| 25 Oct 2017 | Chievo | 1 - 4 | Ac Milan |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.00 | 25.0% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.78 | 56.2% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.74 | 57.5% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.94 | 51.5% | 18 Oct 06:15 |