| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.6% | 62% | -3.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 50.1% | 34.1% |
| xgboost | 80.4% | 18.8% |
| logistic | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| Dallas Stars | Montréal Canadiens | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1559 | 1600 |
| Surface Elo | 1559 | 1600 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.75 | 3.17 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.08 | 3.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 28 Oct | H | New Jersey Devils | 1 - 5 | L |
| 25 Oct | H | New York Islanders | 6 - 3 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Winnipeg Jets | 3 - 2 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Boston Bruins | 3 - 2 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Chicago Blackhawks | 4 - 0 | W |
| 28 Oct | A | St. Louis Blues | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Winnipeg Jets | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Chicago Blackhawks | 4 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | San Jose Sharks | 3 - 4 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Buffalo Sabres | 4 - 3 | W |
| 04 Jan 2026 | Dallas Stars | 3 - 4 | Montréal Canadiens |
| 14 Nov 2025 | Montréal Canadiens | 0 - 7 | Dallas Stars |
| 17 Jan 2025 | Dallas Stars | 1 - 3 | Montréal Canadiens |
| 12 Jan 2025 | Montréal Canadiens | 1 - 2 | Dallas Stars |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 1.61 | 62.1% | 29 Oct 20:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 2.49 | 40.2% | 29 Oct 20:20 |