| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 67.7% | 67% | +1.0% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 74.3% | 25.6% |
| logistic | 63.4% | 36.6% |
| Hugo Grenier | Thomas Faurel | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1585 | 1447 |
| Surface Elo | 1585 | 1447 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 22 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | H | Vadym Ursu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Thomas Faurel | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Christian Langmo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Billy Harris | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Sep | A | Billy Harris | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Mark Lajal | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Hugo Grenier | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Dusan Obradovic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Calvin Hemery | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Giorgio Tabacco | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Hugo Grenier | 0 - 2 | Thomas Faurel |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.50 | 66.7% | 22 Sep 06:15 |