| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.3% | 68% | -7.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 67.5% | 32.4% |
| logistic | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| Guido Ivan Justo | Gonzalo Villanueva | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1620 | 1565 |
| Surface Elo | 1620 | 1565 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | H | Pedro Sakamoto | 1 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Franco Roncadelli | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Gustavo Heide | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Tomas Barrios Vera | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Mateus Alves | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Guido Ivan Justo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Mateus Alves | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Gonzalo Villanueva | 0 - 2 | Guido Ivan Justo |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Gonzalo Villanueva | 1 - 2 | Guido Ivan Justo |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Gonzalo Villanueva | 1 - 2 | Guido Ivan Justo |
| 23 Feb 2026 | Gonzalo Villanueva | 0 - 2 | Guido Ivan Justo |
| 28 Apr 2025 | Gonzalo Villanueva | 0 - 2 | Guido Ivan Justo |
| 17 Apr 2023 | Gonzalo Villanueva | 1 - 2 | Guido Ivan Justo |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.60 | 38.5% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.46 | 68.5% | 02 Oct 06:15 |