| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 69.5% | 83% | -13.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 31.8% | 68.2% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 37.0% | 62.9% |
| logistic | 29.5% | 70.5% |
| Andrew Fenty | Dylan Dietrich | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1404 | 1621 |
| Surface Elo | 1404 | 1621 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 29 Sep | A | Igor Marcondes | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Dylan Dietrich | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Igor Marcondes | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Erik Arutiunian | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | Luis "Guto" Miguel | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Wolf, Jeffrey John | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Abdullah Shelbayh | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Andy Andrade | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Darwin Blanch | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Andrew Fenty | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Andrew Fenty | 0 - 2 | Dylan Dietrich |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.21 | 82.6% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.10 | 24.4% | 30 Sep 06:15 |