OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-10
⚽ England League One · Saturday 10 October 2026, 11:30 UTC · finished
Plymouth 2.40 2 - 1 1.60 AFC Wimbledon
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 59.5%65%-5.9%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 83.4%88%-4.2%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 76.8%83%-6.1%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 50.4%45%+4.9%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS no 52.0%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson54.3%24.6%21.1%
xgboost71.9%16.2%11.9%
logistic70.9%19.3%9.9%
Inputs the models saw
PlymouthAFC Wimbledon
Elo (pre-match)15891447
Surface Elo15891447
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.401.60
Form trend0.300.00
Season points per game2.001.00
Season goals for / game2.001.00
Season goals against / game1.001.00
Rest days613
Head-to-head (last 10)7 W2 W · 1 D
Plymouth: last 5
06 OctANewport County2 - 2D
03 OctALeyton Orient2 - 0W
03 OctALeyton Orient2 - 0W
26 SepHBurton0 - 1L
26 SepHBurton0 - 1L
AFC Wimbledon: last 5
06 OctHBarnet0 - 0D
26 SepACambridge1 - 1D
26 SepACambridge1 - 1D
17 SepHMilton Keynes Dons0 - 0D
12 SepHDoncaster1 - 0W
Head to head
18 Apr 2026AFC Wimbledon1 - 3Plymouth
18 Oct 2025Plymouth1 - 2AFC Wimbledon
08 Mar 2022Plymouth2 - 0AFC Wimbledon
18 Sep 2021AFC Wimbledon0 - 1Plymouth
02 Apr 2021Plymouth1 - 0AFC Wimbledon
19 Sep 2020AFC Wimbledon4 - 4Plymouth
26 Dec 2018AFC Wimbledon2 - 1Plymouth
06 Oct 2018Plymouth1 - 0AFC Wimbledon
13 Feb 2018Plymouth4 - 2AFC Wimbledon
21 Oct 2017AFC Wimbledon0 - 1Plymouth
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away5.8017.2%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.5022.2%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.5365.4%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.6461.0%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.2045.5%09 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:03 UTC