| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 63.0% | 70% | -6.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 31.3% | 68.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 40.1% | 59.8% |
| logistic | 35.7% | 64.3% |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | Matteo Berrettini | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1688 | 1856 |
| Surface Elo | 1688 | 1856 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 12 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 07 Oct | H | Matteo Berrettini | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | A | Lloyd Harris | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | H | Lloyd Harris | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Valentin Vacherot | 0 - 3 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | Arthur Fery | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Oct | A | Aleksandar Kovacevic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Oct 2026 | Aleksandar Kovacevic | 1 - 2 | Matteo Berrettini |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.43 | 69.9% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.90 | 34.5% | 06 Oct 06:15 |