| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.6% | 63% | -4.7% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 67.9% | 32.0% |
| logistic | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| Gustavo Heide | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1728 | 1683 |
| Surface Elo | 1728 | 1683 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.10 | 2.10 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.10 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 23 Oct | H | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Juan Pablo Varillas | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Alex Hernandez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Juan Manuel La Serna | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Nicolas Jarry | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Jose Pereira | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Gustavo Heide | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Juan Manuel La Serna | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Gustavo Heide | 0 - 2 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida |
| 25 Sep 2023 | Gustavo Heide | 2 - 0 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.30 | 43.5% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.58 | 63.3% | 24 Oct 06:15 |