OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-18
⚽ Italy Serie A · Sunday 18 October 2026, 16:00 UTC · finished
Ac Milan 1.80 3 - 2 1.20 Atalanta
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 48.5%54%-5.8%✓ hit
DCHome or away 75.6%77%-1.7%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 63.4%72%-9.1%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 55.5%58%-2.2%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 54.3%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson42.6%27.0%30.4%
xgboost45.7%26.1%28.2%
logistic49.9%27.0%23.1%
Inputs the models saw
Ac MilanAtalanta
Elo (pre-match)17651712
Surface Elo17651712
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.801.20
Form trend0.200.00
Season points per game1.003.00
Season goals for / game1.003.00
Season goals against / game1.001.00
Rest days75
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W4 W · 3 D
Ac Milan: last 5
18 OctAChievo2 - 1W
15 OctASalzburg4 - 0W
11 OctASassuolo1 - 1D
11 OctASassuolo1 - 1D
20 SepHLecce3 - 0W
Atalanta: last 5
18 OctAAS Gubbio2 - 0W
15 OctHPafos FC3 - 1W
14 OctALatina Calcio0 - 2L
12 OctHVenezia3 - 1W
12 OctHVenezia3 - 1W
Head to head
10 May 2026Ac Milan2 - 3Atalanta
28 Oct 2025Atalanta1 - 1Ac Milan
20 Apr 2025Ac Milan0 - 1Atalanta
06 Dec 2024Atalanta2 - 1Ac Milan
25 Feb 2024Ac Milan1 - 1Atalanta
09 Dec 2023Atalanta3 - 2Ac Milan
26 Feb 2023Ac Milan2 - 0Atalanta
21 Aug 2022Atalanta1 - 1Ac Milan
15 May 2022Ac Milan2 - 0Atalanta
03 Oct 2021Atalanta2 - 3Ac Milan
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away4.3622.9%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.8825.8%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.8454.4%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.7357.8%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.1047.6%16 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:23 UTC