| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.9% | 47% | +5.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 76.7% | 76% | +0.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 67.3% | 64% | +2.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 51% | +2.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.5% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 45.6% | 28.5% | 25.9% |
| xgboost | 44.7% | 28.4% | 26.9% |
| logistic | 52.4% | 26.2% | 21.5% |
| Farense | Chaves | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1432 | 1401 |
| Surface Elo | 1432 | 1401 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 504 | 868 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 17 May | H | Santa Clara | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 May | A | Guimaraes | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 May | H | Famalicao | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Apr | A | Gil Vicente | 0 - 1 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | Boavista | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Guarda Desportiva FC | 3 - 2 | W |
| 18 May | A | Sp Lisbon | 0 - 3 | L |
| 10 May | H | Famalicao | 0 - 1 | L |
| 04 May | H | Porto | 0 - 3 | L |
| 27 Apr | A | Casa Pia | 1 - 3 | L |
| 04 Feb 2024 | Chaves | 1 - 1 | Farense |
| 26 Aug 2023 | Farense | 5 - 0 | Chaves |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.96 | 51.0% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.82 | 54.9% | 04 Oct 06:15 |