| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 60.1% | 65% | -5.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 65.2% | 34.8% |
| logistic | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| Calvin Hemery | Florent Bax | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1604 | 1556 |
| Surface Elo | 1604 | 1556 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 02 Oct | A | Dev Javia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Van Herck, Louis | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Carlos Taberner | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Sep | A | Oriol Roca Batalla | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Daniel Elahi Galan | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Yshai Oliel | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Warik, C | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Noah Schachter | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Sep | A | Moise Kouame | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Sep | A | Martin Borisiouk | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 May 2026 | Calvin Hemery | 2 - 1 | Florent Bax |
| 20 Apr 2026 | Calvin Hemery | 2 - 1 | Florent Bax |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.35 | 42.5% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.53 | 65.4% | 03 Oct 06:15 |