| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 47.7% | 29% | +19.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.9% | 83% | -6.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 61.0% | 37% | +24.0% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.2% | 70% | -13.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 21.2% | 26.5% | 52.3% |
| xgboost | 38.5% | 23.7% | 37.8% |
| logistic | 33.8% | 28.5% | 37.8% |
| Sutton | West Brom | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1392 | 1523 |
| Surface Elo | 1392 | 1523 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 09 Oct | H | Boreham Wood | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Boreham Wood | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Kidderminster | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | Kidderminster | 1 - 1 | D |
| 30 Sep | A | Tamworth | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Birmingham | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Birmingham | 0 - 1 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Ipswich Town U21 | 2 - 2 | D |
| 20 Sep | A | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0 - 1 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.50 | 28.6% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.10 | 24.4% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.85 | 54.0% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.42 | 70.4% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.80 | 35.7% | 13 Oct 06:15 |