| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 41.4% | 40% | +1.8% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.3% | 76% | -0.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 54.1% | 54% | +0.2% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.9% | 59% | +0.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 59.4% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 45.4% | 25.7% | 29.0% |
| xgboost | 36.1% | 24.0% | 39.9% |
| logistic | 36.5% | 27.7% | 35.8% |
| Derby | Bolton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1454 | 1543 |
| Surface Elo | 1454 | 1543 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.43 | 1.43 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.71 | 1.71 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.29 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 2 W · 1 D |
| 03 Nov | H | Norwich | 0 - 4 | L |
| 03 Nov | H | Norwich | 0 - 4 | L |
| 03 Nov | A | Wealdstone | 2 - 2 | D |
| 02 Nov | A | Hull | 0 - 1 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Millwall | 1 - 4 | L |
| 03 Nov | A | Charlton | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Nov | A | Charlton | 1 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Bristol City | 2 - 3 | L |
| 31 Oct | H | Bristol City | 2 - 3 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | Middlesbrough | 1 - 5 | L |
| 16 Mar 2024 | Derby | 1 - 0 | Bolton |
| 02 Sep 2023 | Bolton | 2 - 1 | Derby |
| 21 Jan 2023 | Derby | 2 - 1 | Bolton |
| 27 Dec 2022 | Bolton | 0 - 0 | Derby |
| 13 Apr 2019 | Derby | 4 - 0 | Bolton |
| 29 Sep 2018 | Bolton | 1 - 0 | Derby |
| 07 Apr 2018 | Derby | 3 - 0 | Bolton |
| 19 Aug 2017 | Bolton | 1 - 2 | Derby |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.74 | 36.5% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.65 | 27.4% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.56 | 39.1% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.72 | 58.1% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 06 Nov 06:15 |