| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.3% | 18% | +40.8% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 82.8% | 40% | +43.2% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 75.8% | 23% | +52.8% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.7% | 72% | -26.5% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 46.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 16.4% | 22.9% | 60.6% |
| xgboost | 26.8% | 25.2% | 48.0% |
| logistic | 24.7% | 28.7% | 46.5% |
| Crewe | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1456 | 1741 |
| Surface Elo | 1456 | 1741 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Sep | H | Shrewsbury | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Shrewsbury | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Colchester | 1 - 1 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | York | 1 - 1 | D |
| 01 Sep | H | Walsall | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Tottenham | 3 - 2 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Nottingham Forest | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Hull | 0 - 0 | D |
| 31 Aug | H | Arsenal | 0 - 1 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | Brighton | 0 - 4 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.10 | 16.4% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.20 | 19.2% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.40 | 71.4% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.35 | 74.1% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.20 | 31.2% | 22 Sep 06:15 |