| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 51.5% | 32% | +19.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 79.5% | 80% | -0.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 65.3% | 44% | +21.7% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.4% | 49% | +4.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 53.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 38.0% | 26.2% | 35.8% |
| xgboost | 28.9% | 21.1% | 50.0% |
| logistic | 19.2% | 17.5% | 63.4% |
| Maidstone | Maidenhead | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1226 | 1453 |
| Surface Elo | 1226 | 1453 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 1266 | 529 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 3 W · 2 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Horsham FC | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Truro | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Cray Wanderers | 1 - 1 | D |
| 29 Apr | A | Chesterfield | 0 - 4 | L |
| 22 Apr | H | Notts County | 2 - 5 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Tonbridge Angels | 0 - 1 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Chesham United | 4 - 0 | W |
| 05 May | H | Boston Utd | 3 - 0 | W |
| 26 Apr | A | Ebbsfleet | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Apr | A | Wealdstone | 1 - 1 | D |
| 18 Mar 2023 | Maidenhead | 2 - 1 | Maidstone |
| 26 Nov 2022 | Maidstone | 3 - 2 | Maidenhead |
| 15 Jan 2019 | Maidstone | 2 - 4 | Maidenhead |
| 25 Aug 2018 | Maidenhead | 3 - 2 | Maidstone |
| 09 Dec 2017 | Maidenhead | 0 - 0 | Maidstone |
| 05 Aug 2017 | Maidstone | 1 - 1 | Maidenhead |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.95 | 33.9% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.69 | 59.2% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 17 Oct 06:15 |