| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.3% | 56% | +3.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 40.6% | 59.3% |
| logistic | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| Adam Walton | Marin Cilic | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1690 | 1784 |
| Surface Elo | 1690 | 1784 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Marin Cilic | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Rigele Te | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Mattia Bellucci | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Moise Kouame | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Valentin Royer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Yosuke Watanuki | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Adam Walton | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Arthur Fery | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Oct | A | Dillon Beckles | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | Daniel Merida | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Adam Walton | 1 - 2 | Marin Cilic |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.95 | 51.3% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.79 | 55.9% | 12 Oct 06:15 |