| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.8% | 44% | +5.2% | |
| DC | Home or draw | 77.4% | 73% | +4.5% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 66.3% | 60% | +6.2% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% | 57% | -1.2% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.9% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 49.4% | 25.4% | 25.2% |
| xgboost | 44.1% | 33.9% | 22.0% |
| logistic | 46.1% | 28.5% | 25.4% |
| Catanzaro | Padova | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1415 | 1425 |
| Surface Elo | 1415 | 1425 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 28 Oct | A | Ac Milan | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Oct | A | Benevento | 1 - 1 | D |
| 27 Oct | A | Benevento | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Ascoli | 1 - 6 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Ascoli | 1 - 6 | L |
| 27 Oct | H | Sudtirol | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | H | Sudtirol | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Avellino | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Avellino | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Cittadella | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Mar 2026 | Padova | 1 - 3 | Catanzaro |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Catanzaro | 0 - 1 | Padova |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.90 | 34.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.33 | 30.0% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.40 | 41.7% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.75 | 57.1% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 30 Oct 06:15 |