| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 62.5% | 44% | +18.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 85.6% | 75% | +11.0% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 74.4% | 61% | +13.2% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.7% | 54% | +5.7% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 25.3% | 25.8% | 48.9% |
| xgboost | 34.5% | 23.8% | 41.7% |
| logistic | 28.2% | 26.9% | 44.9% |
| Fiorentina | Napoli | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1641 | 1790 |
| Surface Elo | 1641 | 1790 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.75 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 8 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 6 W · 2 D |
| 11 Sep | A | Venezia | 4 - 2 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Torino | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | Frosinone | 0 - 3 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | Roma | 0 - 4 | L |
| 22 May | H | Atalanta | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Ascoli | 2 - 2 | D |
| 13 Sep | H | Bologna | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Inter | 2 - 3 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | Como | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | Genoa | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Jan 2026 | Napoli | 2 - 1 | Fiorentina |
| 13 Sep 2025 | Fiorentina | 1 - 3 | Napoli |
| 09 Mar 2025 | Napoli | 2 - 1 | Fiorentina |
| 04 Jan 2025 | Fiorentina | 0 - 3 | Napoli |
| 17 May 2024 | Fiorentina | 2 - 2 | Napoli |
| 08 Oct 2023 | Napoli | 1 - 3 | Fiorentina |
| 07 May 2023 | Napoli | 1 - 0 | Fiorentina |
| 28 Aug 2022 | Fiorentina | 0 - 0 | Napoli |
| 10 Apr 2022 | Napoli | 2 - 3 | Fiorentina |
| 03 Oct 2021 | Fiorentina | 1 - 2 | Napoli |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.30 | 43.5% | 20 Sep 11:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 20 Sep 11:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.20 | 31.2% | 20 Sep 11:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.91 | 52.4% | 20 Sep 11:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.91 | 52.4% | 20 Sep 11:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.33 | 42.9% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.52 | 28.4% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.26 | 30.7% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.81 | 55.2% | 20 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 20 Sep 06:16 |