| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.8% | 61% | -2.8% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 81.0% | 87% | -5.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 75.3% | 80% | -4.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.3% | 58% | -1.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 54.1% | 33% | +20.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 53.1% | 24.5% | 22.4% |
| xgboost | 62.3% | 20.8% | 16.9% |
| logistic | 57.9% | 24.4% | 17.7% |
| Kidderminster | Gateshead | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1455 | 1362 |
| Surface Elo | 1455 | 1362 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.57 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.71 | 0.71 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.86 |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 11 Sep | H | Hartlepool | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Wealdstone | 4 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | Barrow | 1 - 1 | D |
| 28 Aug | A | Southend | 3 - 1 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | Aldershot | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Forest Green | 0 - 4 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Solihull | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Aug | A | Harrogate | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | Sutton | 0 - 1 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | Yeovil | 0 - 3 | L |
| 20 Feb 2024 | Kidderminster | 0 - 2 | Gateshead |
| 19 Sep 2023 | Gateshead | 3 - 0 | Kidderminster |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 6.25 | 16.0% | 16 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.33 | 23.1% | 16 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.42 | 70.4% | 16 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.70 | 58.8% | 16 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 16 Sep 19:45 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.75 | 21.1% | 16 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 16 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.65 | 60.6% | 16 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.72 | 58.1% | 16 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 16 Sep 06:15 |