| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 72.2% | 72% | -0.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 78.1% | 21.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 74.3% | 25.7% |
| logistic | 72.3% | 27.7% |
| Alex De Minaur | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1987 | 1734 |
| Surface Elo | 1987 | 1734 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Rest days | 4 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 11 Oct | H | Rei Sakamoto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Alex Molcan | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Novak Djokovic | 0 - 1 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Novak Djokovic | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Hubert Hurkacz | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Marco Trungelliti | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Marco Trungelliti | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Alex De Minaur | 2 - 0 | Rei Sakamoto |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.15 | 31.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.38 | 72.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |