| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 46.0% | 35% | +10.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 73.9% | 78% | -3.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 59.2% | 50% | +9.0% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.4% | 48% | +11.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 34.1% | 30.0% | 35.9% |
| xgboost | 32.7% | 33.0% | 34.3% |
| logistic | 28.3% | 23.8% | 47.9% |
| Lugo | Logrones | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1337 | 1405 |
| Surface Elo | 1337 | 1405 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.50 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 3.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 1234 | 1960 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 02 Oct | A | Real Aviles CF | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Ferrol | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Zamora CF | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 May | A | Burgos | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 May | H | Huesca | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | UD Barbastro | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | FC Barcelona Atletic | 0 - 1 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | UE Olot | 2 - 4 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | RC Deportivo Fabril | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Merida AD | 5 - 3 | W |
| 21 Feb 2021 | Lugo | 1 - 1 | Logrones |
| 24 Oct 2020 | Logrones | 2 - 3 | Lugo |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.75 | 36.4% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.10 | 32.3% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.40 | 41.7% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.00 | 50.0% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.69 | 59.2% | 12 Oct 06:15 |