| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 64.6% | 71% | -6.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 26.3% | 73.7% |
| logistic | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| August Holmgren | Henrique Rocha | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1622 | 1693 |
| Surface Elo | 1622 | 1693 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | H | Andrea Guerrieri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Benjamin Bonzi | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Henrique Rocha | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Andrea Guerrieri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Benjamin Bonzi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Mili Poljicak | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Cezar Cretu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Inaki Montes De La Torre | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | August Holmgren | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Mili Poljicak | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | August Holmgren | 0 - 2 | Henrique Rocha |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.41 | 70.9% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.75 | 36.4% | 02 Oct 06:15 |