| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.0% | 34% | +20.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 78.3% | 78% | +0.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 64.8% | 47% | +17.8% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.5% | 48% | -4.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 45.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 36.6% | 31.1% | 32.3% |
| xgboost | 36.2% | 27.9% | 35.9% |
| logistic | 38.3% | 30.1% | 31.7% |
| Walsall | Stevenage | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1446 | 1541 |
| Surface Elo | 1446 | 1541 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 4 D |
| 19 Sep | H | Port Vale | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Port Vale | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Rochdale | 0 - 0 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Exeter | 0 - 0 | D |
| 01 Sep | A | Crewe | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Leyton Orient | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Leyton Orient | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Sep | H | Luton | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Barnsley | 5 - 1 | W |
| 01 Sep | A | Peterboro | 0 - 0 | D |
| 11 Mar 2023 | Stevenage | 3 - 1 | Walsall |
| 13 Aug 2022 | Walsall | 1 - 1 | Stevenage |
| 08 Jan 2022 | Stevenage | 3 - 1 | Walsall |
| 28 Aug 2021 | Walsall | 1 - 0 | Stevenage |
| 20 Feb 2021 | Stevenage | 1 - 1 | Walsall |
| 02 Dec 2020 | Walsall | 1 - 1 | Stevenage |
| 23 Nov 2019 | Walsall | 0 - 0 | Stevenage |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.80 | 35.7% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.10 | 47.6% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.73 | 57.8% | 22 Sep 06:15 |