| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.1% | 61% | -4.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 61.8% | 38.1% |
| logistic | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| Pavel Kotov | Aleksandar Vukic | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1723 | 1685 |
| Surface Elo | 1723 | 1685 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | A | Damm Jr, Martin | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Shintaro Mochizuki | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Luca Castelnuovo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Marat Sharipov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Bernard Tomic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Jie Cui | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Ryan Seggerman | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | H | Kyrian Jacquet | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Sep | H | Kyrian Jacquet | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Rei Sakamoto | 2 - 3 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.30 | 43.5% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.65 | 60.6% | 06 Oct 06:15 |