OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-10
⚽ Spain LaLiga · Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:15 UTC · finished
Alaves 1.40 1 - 2 2.40 Atlético Madrid
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 50.7%54%-3.3%✓ hit
DCHome or away 75.1%77%-1.6%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 65.2%72%-7.1%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 54.8%55%+0.1%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 55.9%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson24.3%26.5%49.2%
xgboost30.0%29.7%40.3%
logistic28.8%26.2%45.0%
Inputs the models saw
AlavesAtlético Madrid
Elo (pre-match)16161759
Surface Elo16161759
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.402.40
Form trend0.70-0.30
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days2120
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W6 W · 2 D
Alaves: last 5
19 SepAAthletic Club0 - 0D
15 SepHValencia0 - 1L
12 SepASantander1 - 2L
06 SepHOsasuna5 - 2W
28 AugHVillarreal1 - 0W
Atlético Madrid: last 5
04 OctHUB Conquense3 - 2W
02 OctAReal Madrid2 - 3L
27 SepHReal Madrid2 - 0W
25 SepHVillarreal CF B1 - 3L
20 SepHReal Madrid2 - 1W
Head to head
18 Jan 2026Atlético Madrid1 - 0Alaves
30 Aug 2025Alaves1 - 1Atlético Madrid
03 May 2025Alaves0 - 0Atlético Madrid
23 Nov 2024Atlético Madrid2 - 1Alaves
21 Apr 2024Alaves2 - 0Atlético Madrid
29 Oct 2023Atlético Madrid2 - 1Alaves
02 Apr 2022Atlético Madrid4 - 1Alaves
25 Sep 2021Alaves1 - 0Atlético Madrid
21 Mar 2021Atlético Madrid1 - 0Alaves
03 Jan 2021Alaves1 - 2Atlético Madrid
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away1.8753.5%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.8825.8%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home4.4122.7%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.8454.4%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.0050.0%09 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 18:19 UTC