| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.7% | 60% | -2.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 81.0% | 85% | -3.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 73.7% | 78% | -4.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.9% | 48% | +5.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 53.9% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 60.5% | 22.2% | 17.3% |
| xgboost | 62.6% | 17.7% | 19.6% |
| logistic | 67.9% | 21.0% | 11.0% |
| Chesterfield | Tranmere | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1530 | 1343 |
| Surface Elo | 1530 | 1343 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 2 D |
| 26 Sep | A | Cheltenham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Cheltenham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | H | Port Vale | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | York | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | York | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Walsall | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Walsall | 1 - 1 | D |
| 22 Sep | H | Shrewsbury | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Exeter | 0 - 0 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Exeter | 0 - 0 | D |
| 11 Apr 2026 | Chesterfield | 1 - 1 | Tranmere |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Tranmere | 1 - 1 | Chesterfield |
| 05 Apr 2025 | Tranmere | 4 - 0 | Chesterfield |
| 07 Dec 2024 | Chesterfield | 3 - 0 | Tranmere |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.60 | 21.7% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.68 | 59.5% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.68 | 59.5% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 02 Oct 06:15 |