| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.6% | 65% | -2.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 61.2% | 38.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| logistic | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| Arthur Fils | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2034 | 1896 |
| Surface Elo | 2034 | 1896 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.80 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.40 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 11 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 23 Oct | A | Alex Michelsen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Botic Van De Zandschulp | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Botic Van De Zandschulp | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Pavel Kotov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Pavel Kotov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Arthur Fils | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | A | David Goffin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | David Goffin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Andrea Guerrieri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Andrea Guerrieri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Alex Michelsen | 0 - 2 | Arthur Fils |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.55 | 39.2% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.55 | 64.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |