| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 79.5% | 83% | -3.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 19.0% | 80.9% |
| logistic | 28.5% | 71.5% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Lorenzo Berto | Gianmarco Ferrari | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1472 | 1493 |
| Surface Elo | 1472 | 1493 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.80 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 7 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 03 Nov | A | Gabriele Crivellaro | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | Alexander Weis | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Daniele Rapagnetta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Arthur Bellegy | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Manuel Mazza | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Nov | H | Michele Mecarelli | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Nov | H | De Marchi, Andrea | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Nov | H | Bertimon, M | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Nov | H | Jacopo Berrettini | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Filippo Moroni | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.21 | 82.6% | 11 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.90 | 25.6% | 11 Nov 06:15 |