| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 51.4% | 50% | +1.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| logistic | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| Niels Visker | Tom Paris | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1482 | 1503 |
| Surface Elo | 1482 | 1503 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 27 | 125 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 31 Aug | H | Pedro Vives Marcos | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Jul | A | Gauthier Onclin | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Jul | A | Alex Barrena | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Jul | H | Ryan Nijboer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 May | A | Lukas Pokorny | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Apr | A | Ilia Simakin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Mar | A | Lucas Poullain | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Mar | A | Otto Virtanen | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Nov | A | Dinko Dinev | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.99 | 50.2% | 27 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.76 | 56.8% | 27 Sep 06:15 |