| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.6% | 66% | -6.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 85.8% | 88% | -1.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 80.5% | 83% | -2.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.3% | 67% | -2.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 62.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 67.8% | 19.9% | 12.3% |
| xgboost | 57.7% | 23.8% | 18.5% |
| logistic | 68.7% | 21.1% | 10.3% |
| Utrecht | Willem II | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1597 | 1341 |
| Surface Elo | 1597 | 1341 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 0.71 | 0.29 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.57 | 0.86 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.43 | 2.86 |
| Rest days | 21 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 7 W | 2 W · 1 D |
| 09 Oct | A | Graafschap | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Feyenoord | 0 - 5 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Feyenoord | 0 - 5 | L |
| 13 Sep | A | Excelsior | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Sep | H | Go Ahead Eagles | 3 - 3 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | For Sittard | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Fortuna Sittard | 0 - 1 | L |
| 15 Sep | A | Ajax | 1 - 5 | L |
| 11 Sep | A | AZ Alkmaar | 1 - 1 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Excelsior | 0 - 3 | L |
| 09 Mar 2025 | Willem II | 2 - 3 | Utrecht |
| 21 Sep 2024 | Utrecht | 3 - 2 | Willem II |
| 15 May 2022 | Willem II | 3 - 0 | Utrecht |
| 31 Oct 2021 | Utrecht | 5 - 1 | Willem II |
| 01 May 2021 | Utrecht | 3 - 2 | Willem II |
| 19 Feb 2021 | Willem II | 0 - 6 | Utrecht |
| 16 Feb 2020 | Willem II | 1 - 1 | Utrecht |
| 29 Sep 2019 | Utrecht | 2 - 0 | Willem II |
| 27 Jan 2019 | Utrecht | 0 - 1 | Willem II |
| 28 Oct 2018 | Willem II | 0 - 1 | Utrecht |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 5.75 | 17.4% | 11 Oct 11:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.33 | 23.1% | 11 Oct 11:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.50 | 66.7% | 11 Oct 11:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.44 | 69.4% | 11 Oct 11:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.70 | 37.0% | 11 Oct 11:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.64 | 17.7% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.80 | 20.8% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.55 | 64.5% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.50 | 66.7% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.70 | 37.0% | 11 Oct 06:15 |