| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 66.9% | 29% | +37.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 91.8% | 55% | +37.2% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 89.6% | 39% | +51.1% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.8% | 60% | +1.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 80.8% | 12.8% | 6.4% |
| xgboost | 64.4% | 26.6% | 9.0% |
| logistic | 77.0% | 16.4% | 6.6% |
| Manchester United | Altrincham | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1786 | 1498 |
| Surface Elo | 1786 | 1498 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 10 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 18 Oct | A | Leeds | 1 - 1 | D |
| 13 Oct | H | AFC Emley | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Tottenham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 06 Oct | A | Alfreton Town FC | 0 - 1 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Worksop Town | 3 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Aldershot | 3 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Aldershot | 3 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Boreham Wood | 1 - 3 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Boreham Wood | 1 - 3 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Gateshead | 1 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.00 | 50.0% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.33 | 30.0% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.70 | 58.8% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 20 Oct 06:15 |